MLB / mlb / live
SDP 5 / BAL 2SDPSan Diego Padres42%
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
SDP42%ML +116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
BAL58%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanatics / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 draftkings / U -130 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+116 / -139SDP / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total