MLB / mlb / live
WSN 1 / BAL 3WSNWashington Nationals48%
BALBaltimore Orioles52%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
WSN48%ML +118
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
BAL52%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betrivers / U +118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -140WSN / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total