MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / BAL 7SDPSan Diego Padres42%
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGriffin Canning
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterShane Baz
SDP42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
BAL58%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Griffin CanningSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -115 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +138 fanduel / U -152 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132SDP / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total