MLB / mlb / live
SEA 5 / BAL 7SEASeattle Mariners56%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickSEA moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKyle Bradish
SEA56%ML -115
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
BAL44%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 draftkings / U -152 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-115 / -104SEA / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -121 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total