MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / BAL 9TORToronto Blue Jays52%
BALBaltimore Orioles48%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterSpencer Miles
Model pickTOR moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKyle Bradish
TOR52%ML +114
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
BAL48%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.2 pts
Spencer Miles has 1.0 IP this season—TOR starter is effectively unknown. Model relies on away_pitcher_last features that cannot be meaningful with this sample. BAL at home converges with market (~52% both ways) but pitcher uncertainty makes this a coin flip. Total: park_factor 0.94 drags model under 9, but TOR's .786 OPS vs BAL's .662 and shallow SP suggest runs. Lean over the 8.5.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -134TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total