MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / BAL 6TORToronto Blue Jays56%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey Yesavage
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterBrandon Young
TOR56%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
BAL44%ML +106
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.3 pts
Model has TOR 55.7%, market implies 52.9% - modest comparison. Model total of 9.04 vs market 7.5 is a 1.54-run gap, triggering far_from_market flag. Both pitchers lack season stats despite 10 starts each, making this a data quality concern. Market's 7.5 total in a pitcher park (0.938 PF) suggests confidence in pitching; model's over-lean via away LHP SHAP seems structural. Pass on total given stat gaps.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +106TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total