MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / BAL 1TORToronto Blue Jays55%
BALBaltimore Orioles45%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterPatrick Corbin
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterChris Bassitt
TOR55%ML +109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BAL45%ML -129
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts
Model picks TOR at 55.2% but market has BAL at 54.1% - disagreement flag fires. BAL's 5.6 RPG vs TOR's 3.8 RPG suggests offensive mismatch favors home. Model total 9.06 vs market 8.5 is modest 0.56 gap. Park factor 0.94 is pitcher-friendly but not extreme. Flip a coin on side, slight over lean on volume.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+109 / -129TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total