MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / BAL 1DETDetroit Tigers46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTroy Melton
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterTrevor Rogers
DET46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
BAL54%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.7 pts
Brandon Young has 10 starts but null ERA/IP/WHIP—uninterpretable. Valdez 1.50 ERA in only 6.0 IP is a 1-start fragment, not actionable. Market data missing so no odds anchor. DET offense anemic (2.3 RPG, .582 OPS) but without reliable pitcher baseline I can't form a view on either side or total.
market data missing
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130DET / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total