MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / BAL 3BOSBoston Red Sox37%
BALBaltimore Orioles63%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickBAL moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKyle Bradish
BOS37%ML +120
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
BAL63%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.0 pts
Model has BAL 62.6% vs market 56.3% — a 6.3pp gap favoring the home side. But BOS has stronger offense (.736 OPS vs .662) despite worse record. Early's 1.69 ERA in 53 IP with 10.13 K/9 is legitimate; Bradish's 4.2 IP sample is too thin to trust his 3.86. Model total 8.67 vs market 7.5 suggests over lean in a pitcher park (0.94 PF).
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145BOS / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total