MLB / mlb / live
PHI 9 / ATL 4PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
ATLAtlanta Braves54%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline54%Model 20260907_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
PHI46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ATL54%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -125 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total