MLB / mlb / live
TBR 7 / ATL 2TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
ATLAtlanta Braves42%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
ATLHome starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
TBR58%ML +105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
ATL42%ML -124
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betonlineag / U -114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -124TBR / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total