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ARI 3 / ATL 5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks43%
ATLAtlanta Braves57%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMichael SorokaConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
ATLHome starterBryce ElderConfirmed
ARI43%ML +108
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
ATL57%ML -126

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +109 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+108 / -126ARI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total