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MIA 3 / ATL 11
MIAMiami Marlins52%
ATLAtlanta Braves48%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterJanson JunkConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
MIA52%ML +145
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
ATL48%ML -170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.7 pts

Disagreeing with the model: it takes MIA despite worse record (58-57 vs 69-45), lower OPS (.774 vs .789), and the weaker starter (Junk 4.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP vs Perez 3.24, 1.17). Market's 57.3% on ATL looks better calibrated than the model's 52.4% on Miami. Truist at 0.915 PF plus modest offenses argues under 9.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +126 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+145 / -170MIA / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total