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WSN 2 / ATL 6
WSNWashington Nationals31%
ATLAtlanta Braves69%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline69%Model 20260727_auto
ATLHome starterBryce ElderConfirmed
WSN31%ML +101
Base model probability69%Moneyline only
ATL69%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.5 pts

Model has ATL 69% vs market's 52% — a 17-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Griffin's 2.76 ERA in 124 IP is legitimate, ATL offense sits mid-pack at 3.9 RPG. Model margin driven by home HR features but park suppresses runs (0.915). Market knows something here; I defer on side. Total 9.56 vs line 9.0 is close; lean over given WSN's 5.5 RPG.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinWSN starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -151 draftkings / U +135 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.577%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+101 / -120WSN / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total