sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
WSNWashington Nationals34%
ATLAtlanta Braves66%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJake IrvinProbable
Model pickATL moneyline66%Model 20260727_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesProbable
WSN34%ML +128
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
ATL66%ML -152

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.3 pts

Model sees ATL at 66.2% vs market's 57.2% — a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Holmes (3.79 ERA, 97.3 IP) vs Irvin (5.23 ERA, 51.7 IP) favors ATL, but the market is usually right on such disagreements. Truist Park factor 0.915 suppresses scoring. Model total 9.70 vs market 10.0 is reasonable. Lean ATL side cautiously, prefer under on total given park.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.6
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.559%
O 4.540%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.529%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+128 / -152WSN / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total