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WSN 4 / ATL 5
WSNWashington Nationals34%
ATLAtlanta Braves66%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline66%Model 20260727_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
WSN34%ML +133
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
ATL66%ML -159

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.0 pts

Model sees ATL at 66.2% vs market's 57.2% — a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Holmes (3.79 ERA, 97.3 IP) vs Irvin (5.23 ERA, 51.7 IP) favors ATL, but the market is usually right on such disagreements. Truist Park factor 0.915 suppresses scoring. Model total 9.70 vs market 10.0 is reasonable. Lean ATL side cautiously, prefer under on total given park.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.6
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 betonlineag / U -106 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+133 / -159WSN / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total