MLB / mlb / live
NYM 7 / ATL 6NYMNew York Mets50%
ATLAtlanta Braves50%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
ATLHome starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
NYM50%ML +108
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
ATL50%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+108 / -128NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total