sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TEX 1 / ATL 15
TEXTexas Rangers42%
ATLAtlanta Braves58%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260713_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
TEX42%ML +180
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
ATL58%ML -218

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.0 pts

Market has ATL at 65.3% vs model's 58.3%; I side with market given Sale's 2.20 ERA in 98 IP anchors a real comparison. Ace matchup flag applies but model's 9.47 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.47-run gap worth investigating. ATL's 5.7 RPG offense in a pitcher park (0.915 PF) plus TEX's middling 4.9 RPG suggest modest over lean despite Sale.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +134 fanduel / U -167 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 3.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.532%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +108 draftkings / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+180 / -218TEX / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total