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NYM 3 / ATL 14
NYMNew York Mets38%
ATLAtlanta Braves62%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline62%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
NYM38%ML +158
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
ATL62%ML -190

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.9 pts

Model (62%) and market (61%) align on ATL. Sale's 2.10 ERA in 90 IP is elite; Manaea's 4.71 ERA creates clear mismatch. Truist's 0.915 park factor argues under, but model's 8.67 vs market's 8.0 is modest. SHAP shows home offense metrics driving total up; Sale quality limits downside risk. Take ATL, slight over lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 betrivers / U +101 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +105 betmgm / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%under
O 4.588%under
O 5.579%under
O 6.566%under
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+158 / -190NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+111)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total