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NYM 3 / ATL 5
NYMNew York Mets56%
ATLAtlanta Braves44%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterChristian ScottConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
NYM56%ML -104
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
ATL44%ML -112

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.6 pts

Model favors NYM 55.7% vs market 48.9%, a 6.8pp gap on a coin-flip line. ATL's 50-34 record vs NYM's 36-51 suggests model overweights recent noise. Scott's 10.6 K/9 in 45 IP is impressive but small sample. Holmes solid at home park (PF 0.915). Total 9.18 vs market 9.0 is tight; lean over given both offenses functional and no ace matchup to suppress.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -112NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -114
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total