MLB / mlb / live
STL 11 / ATL 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals44%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterHurston WaldrepConfirmed
STL44%ML +100
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
ATL56%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Dustin MaySTL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Hurston WaldrepATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 bovada / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118STL / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total