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MIL 3 / ATL 4
MILMilwaukee Brewers51%
ATLAtlanta Braves49%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
MIL51%ML +116
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
ATL49%ML -140

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.8 pts

Model has MIL 51% vs market 48%, essentially a toss-up. Sale (2.30 ERA) and Harrison (2.47 ERA) are both elite, arguing under, but MIL's offense (5.4 RPG, .972 OPS) is substantially better than ATL's (3.1 RPG, .789 OPS). Model's 8.5 total is 1.5 runs over market's 7.0; given MIL's firepower and Truist's 0.915 park factor being mild, lean toward MIL side and over on total.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 fanatics / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%over
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+116 / -140MIL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total