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MIL 2 / ATL 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
MIL55%ML -175
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
ATL45%ML +145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.4 pts

Model has MIL at 51.5%, market at 62.0% — a huge 10.5pp disagreement favoring the road side. Misiorowski's 1.34 ERA and 13.55 K/9 over 87 IP is elite and sustainable. ATL's 3.7 RPG is bottom-tier offense vs a dominant starter. Ace matchup + pitcher park (0.915 PF) argues hard under the 7.5 market total; model's 8.9 is structural miss.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +100 bovada / U -116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.567%over
O 7.554%under
O 8.541%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.520%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-175 / +145MIL / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -120
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total