MLB / mlb / live
PIT 3 / ATL 6PITPittsburgh Pirates40%
ATLAtlanta Braves60%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickATL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterMartín Pérez
PIT40%ML +122
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
ATL60%ML -146
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.4 pts
Model has ATL at 60.2%, market at 57.2% — mild comparison but not actionable. PIT's 6.9 RPG over 63 games is real offensive strength vs their .710 OPS; model may be overweighting ATL home park (0.915 suppresses runs). Pérez lacks season IP/ERA data (nulls suggest incomplete logging). Total 8.95 vs market 8.5 is close; PIT's offense argues over.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -146PIT / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total