MLB / mlb / live
TOR 7 / ATL 2TORToronto Blue Jays36%
ATLAtlanta Braves64%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterMason Fluharty
Model pickATL moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterChris Sale
TOR36%ML +210
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability69%Selected moneyline pick
ATL64%ML -263
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap5.1 pts
Market at 65.5% implied vs model 58.1% shows sharp divergence favoring ATL. Chris Sale's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP (tiny sample) plus TOR fallback pitcher creates massive uncertainty. Truist PF 0.915 argues under but model has 8.98 vs market 7.5—structural miss on away starter quality. Lean ATL on record/home comparison but can't trust total without knowing TOR's actual starter.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+210 / -263TOR / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total