MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / ATL 8BOSBoston Red Sox40%
ATLAtlanta Braves60%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterBrayan Bello
Model pickATL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterGrant Holmes
BOS40%ML +135
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
ATL60%ML -160
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.1 pts
ATL 31-15 vs BOS 18-27, model and market align (60.2% vs 59.1%). Bello's missing season stats suggest data issue; Holmes has only 5.0 IP across 10 GS (0.5 IP/start average is clearly incomplete). Park factor 0.92 argues under on total but incomplete pitcher data makes lean unsafe. Side pick only on record strength.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -160BOS / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -117 / U -103
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total