MLB / mlb / live
BOS 3 / ATL 2BOSBoston Red Sox37%
ATLAtlanta Braves63%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickATL moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
BOS37%ML +120
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
ATL63%ML -142
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.6 pts
ATL 31-14 vs BOS 17-27 is a clear talent gap. Model at 62.9% vs market 56.0% is a 6.9pp spread favoring the model—normally a yellow flag, but here the record differential supports it. Truist Park runs 0.915 (pitcher-friendly) but model total 9.06 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean. Missing pitcher stats limit conviction on either side.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -142BOS / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -116
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total