MLB / mlb / live
BOS 3 / ATL 2BOSBoston Red Sox37%
ATLAtlanta Braves63%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton Tolle
Model pickATL moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
BOS37%ML +120
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
ATL63%ML -142
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.9 pts
ATL 31-14 vs BOS 17-27 is a clear talent gap. Model at 62.9% vs market 56.0% is a 6.9pp spread favoring the model—normally a yellow flag, but here the record differential supports it. Truist Park runs 0.915 (pitcher-friendly) but model total 9.06 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean. Missing pitcher stats limit conviction on either side.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -142BOS / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -116
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total