MLB / mlb / live
BOS 2 / ATL 3BOSBoston Red Sox53%
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickBOS moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterSpencer Strider
BOS53%ML +128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
ATL47%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts
Model picks BOS at 53% but market implies ATL 57.5%. ATL is 30-14 vs BOS 17-26; model offense_defense_mismatch flag confirms it backs the worse team. Strider missing season stats suggests injury/absence; Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is minuscule sample noise. Model total 9.33 vs market 8.0 in a 0.915 park factor venue—lean over given ATL's 4.3 RPG offense should exploit Early's thin track record.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152BOS / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -117
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total