MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / ATL 0CHCChicago Cubs55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterChris Sale
CHC55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
ATL45%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.6 pts
Model has CHC at 55% but market implies ATL 59%; model systematically underweights home field in pitcher parks (PF 0.915). Sale's 0.0 ERA over 6.0 IP is tiny sample but ATL is 30-13 with 5.2 RPG vs CHC 4.1 RPG. Model total of 9.22 vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap in a pitcher park—lean under with market.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -162CHC / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total