MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / ATL 0CHCChicago Cubs55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterChris Sale
CHC55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
ATL45%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.5 pts
Model has CHC at 55% but market implies ATL 59%; model systematically underweights home field in pitcher parks (PF 0.915). Sale's 0.0 ERA over 6.0 IP is tiny sample but ATL is 30-13 with 5.2 RPG vs CHC 4.1 RPG. Model total of 9.22 vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap in a pitcher park—lean under with market.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -162CHC / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total