MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / ATL 5CHCChicago Cubs59%
ATLAtlanta Braves41%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterGrant Holmes
CHC59%ML +102
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
ATL41%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap11.1 pts
Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 47.2% — an 11.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ATL has better record (28-13) and offense (5.3 RPG, .789 OPS) yet model picks CHC, flagging offense_defense_mismatch. Holmes' 5.4 ERA in limited 5.0 IP sample is noise; Rea has no usable stats. Thin pitcher data plus model-market conflict suggests lean at best.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -120CHC / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -104 / U -118
31 books30 ML21 run line22 total