MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / ATL 5CHCChicago Cubs59%
ATLAtlanta Braves41%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterGrant Holmes
CHC59%ML +102
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ATL41%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.4 pts
Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 47.2% — an 11.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. ATL has better record (28-13) and offense (5.3 RPG, .789 OPS) yet model picks CHC, flagging offense_defense_mismatch. Holmes' 5.4 ERA in limited 5.0 IP sample is noise; Rea has no usable stats. Thin pitcher data plus model-market conflict suggests lean at best.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -120CHC / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -104 / U -118
31 books30 ML21 run line22 total