MLB / mlb / live
DET 5 / ATL 2DETDetroit Tigers55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
ATLHome starterBryce Elder
DET55%ML +108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
ATL45%ML -126
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.9 pts
Model favors DET at 55.2% but market has ATL at 54.8% — a rare convergence at coin-flip odds. ATL's 22-9 record and .789 OPS vs DET's .582 OPS is stark; offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model picks the worse team. Elder's missing stats are a data hole. Valdez 1.50 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample. Lean ATL on offense gap; lean over 8.5 given model 9.1 and pitcher park.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+108 / -126DET / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -109
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total