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LAA 3 / OAK 7
LAALos Angeles Angels47%
OAKOakland Athletics53%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterWalbert UreñaConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
OAKHome starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
LAA47%ML -135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
OAK53%ML +114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.4 pts

Model has OAK at 52.6% vs market's 45.2%, and the starter gap argues against it: Ureña at 2.74 ERA/1.21 WHIP over 144.1 IP versus Springs at 6.18 ERA/1.47 WHIP. LAA's .860 OPS against OAK's .512 compounds the comparison. On the total, Sutter Health Park (PF 1.104) and Springs push up while Ureña against a .512 OPS pushes down; no clear side at 9.5.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 draftkings / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-135 / +114LAA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total