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SEA 7 / OAK 8
SEASeattle Mariners48%
OAKOakland Athletics52%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
OAKHome starterJacob LopezConfirmed
SEA48%ML -132
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
OAK52%ML +113

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.3 pts

Model has OAK at 52.5% while the market implies 43.2% — a 9-point gap on the side with the worse record (60-89 vs 70-79) and far worse offense (.512 OPS vs .793). Miller's 1.14 WHIP also outclasses Lopez's 1.45. Taking Seattle with the market. Sutter Health Park (1.104) argues over, but a 9.5 line against an Oakland lineup at .512 OPS is a lot to clear; slight under lean.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jacob LopezOAK starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanatics / U +128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.570%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +113SEA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total