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SEA 5 / OAK 6
SEASeattle Mariners45%
OAKOakland Athletics55%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline55%Model 20260907_auto
OAKHome starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
SEA45%ML -164
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
OAK55%ML +138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.4 pts

Fading the model here: it picks OAK despite a worse record (59-88 vs 69-78), far worse OPS (.512 vs .793) and the weaker starter (Springs 6.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP vs Kirby 4.18, 1.34). A 55.3% home number against a market implying 40.9% is a 14-point gap with no supporting structure. Sutter Health Park at 1.104 plus Springs' contact profile nudges the total over 10.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.7
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +103 draftkings8 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -161 draftkings / U +138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-164 / +138SEA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total