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SEA 19 / OAK 1
SEASeattle Mariners48%
OAKOakland Athletics52%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryan WooConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
OAKHome starterGage JumpConfirmed
SEA48%ML -152
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
OAK52%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.4 pts

Model has OAK at 52.5% against a market implying 39.1% — a 13-point gap I can't justify. Woo (4.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 156.1 IP) is clearly ahead of Jump (5.12 ERA, 1.49 WHIP), and SEA's .793 OPS dwarfs the listed OAK mark. Siding with Seattle. Sutter Health's 1.104 park factor supports runs, but 9.5 is already a steep line and the model's 8.59 total argues under.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.6
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 draftkings / U -139 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-152 / +130SEA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total