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MIN 4 / OAK 7
MINMinnesota Twins49%
OAKOakland Athletics51%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
OAKHome starterJ.T. GinnConfirmed
MIN49%ML -136
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
OAK51%ML +116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts

Starter gap favors Oakland: Ginn at 3.60 ERA/1.23 WHIP versus Prielipp at 5.57/1.40, yet the market prices OAK as a +121 underdog on record alone. Minnesota's 3.9 RPG offense is the weaker results here despite the better record. Market total of 10.5 is steep even in a 1.104 park; model's 9.23 supports the under.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-136 / +116MIN / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total