sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
DETDetroit Tigers55%
OAKOakland Athletics45%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezProbable
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsProbable
DET55%ML -142
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
OAK45%ML +120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.2 pts

Model has DET at 55.2%, market at 59.2% (implied from -145). Modest disagreement favors market. Perkins 6.45 ERA vs Valdez 4.53 ERA supports DET, but model total 9.32 vs market 10.5 is a 1.2-run gap. Park factor 1.104 pushes runs up, yet both totals suggest scoring. Lean DET side with market, lean under given model-market divergence on total.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.574%
O 4.558%
O 5.541%
O 6.527%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-142 / +120DET / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total