MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / OAK 4BOSBoston Red Sox51%
OAKOakland Athletics49%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
OAKHome starterMason BarnettConfirmed
BOS51%ML -190
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
OAK49%ML +158
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 fanduel / U +123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Mason BarnettOAK starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-190 / +158BOS / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total