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MIA 7 / OAK 2
MIAMiami Marlins44%
OAKOakland Athletics56%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterAaron CivaleConfirmed
MIA44%ML -139
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
OAK56%ML +116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.8 pts

Model has OAK at 56% despite worse record and much weaker offense (.512 OPS vs .774). Market correctly favors MIA at 54%. Extreme park (PF 1.104) inflates model's 9.71 total, but market at 11.0 is still too high given Alcantara's 115 IP workload and both pitchers' pedestrian ERAs. Lean MIA and under.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Aaron CivaleOAK starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-139 / +116MIA / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -116 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total