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LAD 9 / OAK 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers56%
OAKOakland Athletics44%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterJustin WrobleskiConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
OAKHome starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
LAD56%ML -181
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
OAK44%ML +150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.9 pts

Model predicts 7.61 runs, market sets 11.0 — a massive 3.4-run gap. Market likely accounting for OAK bullpen collapse or Springs' 5.52 ERA blowup risk in extreme hitter park (PF 1.104). Wrobleski's 2.71 ERA over 86 IP is legitimate. LAD offense (.743 OPS) vs Springs favors away side but model's total seems structurally low given park and Springs' profile.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total10.3
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.50%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -168 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-181 / +150LAD / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -115 / U -111
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total