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LAA 9 / OAK 7
LAALos Angeles Angels42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterReid DetmersConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260616_auto
OAKHome starterJack PerkinsConfirmed
LAA42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML -132

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.8 pts

Model likes OAK 58% vs market 54%, but Detmers (3.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 88 IP) is the sharper starter against Perkins (6.15 ERA in 41 IP). LAA offense is abysmal (2.9 RPG, .860 OPS appears data error), but OAK isn't strong enough to justify model confidence. Extreme park inflates total to 9.06; lean under market 9.0.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -115 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+110 / -132LAA / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total