sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

PIT 2 / OAK 11
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%

at Sutter Health Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJ.T. GinnConfirmed
PIT46%ML +105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
OAK54%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.3 pts

Model predicts 8.97 runs vs market 11.0, a 2-run gap. Ginn's 3.15 ERA in 71 IP is solid, Jones in only 13 IP is noisy. Hitter park argues over but market total looks inflated. Lean OAK and under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

J.T. GinnOAK starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 fanduel / U +120 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -125PIT / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -107 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total