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COL 23 / OAK 9
COLColorado Rockies42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%

at Las Vegas Ballpark

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
COL42%ML +162
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML -198

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.4 pts

Model total of 9.09 vs market 14.0 is a catastrophic 5-run gap. Springs 4.68 ERA and Sugano 4.08 ERA are league-average arms, not shutdown aces. Missing park factor for Vegas makes structural assessment impossible. Model is structurally broken on this total; side pick unreliable when total logic fails this badly.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total13.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 bovada / U -164 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betmgm / U +112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+162 / -198COL / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context13.5O -114 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total