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COL 5 / OAK 7
COLColorado Rockies46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%

at Las Vegas Ballpark

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle Freeland
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJoey Estes
COL46%ML +130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
OAK54%ML -154

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.7 pts

Joey Estes has fallback data (no ERA/IP/WHIP), making home side unreliable. Market total is 14.0 vs model's 8.89—a 5+ run chasm suggests the model is fundamentally mispricing this venue or context. Freeland's 7.81 ERA in 53 IP is exploitable but without Estes data or park factor I cannot form a view.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total14.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joey EstesOAK starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 draftkings / U -130 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+130 / -154COL / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context14.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total