MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / OAK 4MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Las Vegas Ballpark
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJack Perkins
MIL42%ML -109
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
OAK58%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.1 pts
Model has OAK at 58% but market is dead even at 50%. MIL is 41-24 scoring 8.3 RPG with .972 OPS vs OAK 32-35 at 5.6 RPG with .512 OPS. Perkins 6.19 ERA faces elite offense. Model predicts 8.72 runs, market at 14.5—model drastically underweighting MIL's offensive firepower. Take MIL and over.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total14.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -110MIL / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context14.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML22 run line21 total