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COL 4 / OAK 6
COLColorado Rockies49%
OAKOakland Athletics51%

at Las Vegas Ballpark

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterSean Sullivan
Model pickOAK moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterGage Jump
COL49%ML +180
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
OAK51%ML -213

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.0 pts

Market strongly favors OAK (63.6% implied) while model sees coin flip (50.6%). Away pitcher is TBD/fallback with 5.20 ERA baseline. Model's 9.04 total is 4.5 runs under market's 13.5—massive structural gap suggests market knows something about Vegas park or lineup changes. Jump's 2.45 ERA in 18.1 IP is small sample. Defer to market context on side, lean under on inflated total.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total14.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Sean SullivanCOL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+180 / -213COL / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context14.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total