MLB / mlb / live
MIL 15 / OAK 14MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Las Vegas Ballpark
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJeffrey Springs
MIL42%ML -156
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
OAK58%ML +132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.4 pts
Model backing OAK (57.5%) vs market at 40% is a structural miss. MIL 40-23 with 7.0 RPG and .972 OPS crushes OAK 31-34 at 3.8 RPG/.512 OPS. Harrison data missing but MIL offense overcomes uncertainty. Model total 9.21 vs market 11.0 ignores MIL's elite hitting; lean over with market.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-156 / +132MIL / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total