MLB / mlb / live
MIL 15 / OAK 14MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Las Vegas Ballpark
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJeffrey Springs
MIL42%ML -156
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML +132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap16.1 pts
Model backing OAK (57.5%) vs market at 40% is a structural miss. MIL 40-23 with 7.0 RPG and .972 OPS crushes OAK 31-34 at 3.8 RPG/.512 OPS. Harrison data missing but MIL offense overcomes uncertainty. Model total 9.21 vs market 11.0 ignores MIL's elite hitting; lean over with market.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-156 / +132MIL / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total