MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / OAK 6NYYNew York Yankees46%
OAKOakland Athletics54%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterRyan Weathers
Model pickOAK moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJ.T. Ginn
NYY46%ML -155
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
OAK54%ML +130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.0 pts
Model picks OAK 53.5% vs market's 41.5%—12-point gap. Weathers has no resolved IP/ERA/K9 stats; Ginn's 3.2 IP sample is tiny. Both pitcher inputs are unreliable. NYY's superior offense (5.1 RPG vs 3.7, .692 OPS vs .512) and 13-game record comparison justify market fade. Park runs hot (1.104) but total call requires real pitcher data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-155 / +130NYY / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total