MLB / mlb / live
NYY 13 / OAK 8NYYNew York Yankees42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill Warren
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJacob Lopez
NYY42%ML -180
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
OAK58%ML +150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.6 pts
Model favors OAK 57.5% vs market 40%, a huge gap. NYY 35-23 with 4.8 RPG offense vs OAK 28-30 at 2.9 RPG. Lopez missing IP/ERA data is red flag. Market knows more here; lean NYY. Hitter park argues under vs 10.5 line given pitcher uncertainty.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total9.8
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-180 / +150NYY / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.8O -108 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total