MLB / mlb / live
NYY 13 / OAK 8NYYNew York Yankees42%
OAKOakland Athletics58%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill Warren
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterJacob Lopez
NYY42%ML -180
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability38%Selected moneyline pick
OAK58%ML +150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap19.2 pts
Model favors OAK 57.5% vs market 40%, a huge gap. NYY 35-23 with 4.8 RPG offense vs OAK 28-30 at 2.9 RPG. Lopez missing IP/ERA data is red flag. Market knows more here; lean NYY. Hitter park argues under vs 10.5 line given pitcher uncertainty.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total9.8
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-180 / +150NYY / OAK moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.8O -108 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total