MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / OAK 5SFGSan Francisco Giants52%
OAKOakland Athletics48%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler Mahle
Model pickSFG moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterAaron Civale
SFG52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
OAK48%ML -137
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Model picks SFG 52% but market has OAK -127 (55%). OAK's .512 OPS vs SFG's .388 OPS is a 124-point gap; model underweights this recent form. Mahle has only 4.0 IP over 10 starts (unclear injury/role). Park factor 1.104 pushes total projection but market 10.0 > model 9.17. Lean OAK on offense gap, under on weak lineups.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -137SFG / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -117 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total