MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / OAK 5SFGSan Francisco Giants52%
OAKOakland Athletics48%
at Sutter Health Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler Mahle
Model pickSFG moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
OAKHome starterAaron Civale
SFG52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
OAK48%ML -137
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.6 pts
Model picks SFG 52% but market has OAK -127 (55%). OAK's .512 OPS vs SFG's .388 OPS is a 124-point gap; model underweights this recent form. Mahle has only 4.0 IP over 10 starts (unclear injury/role). Park factor 1.104 pushes total projection but market 10.0 > model 9.17. Lean OAK on offense gap, under on weak lineups.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -137SFG / OAK moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -117 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total