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NYY 9 / ARI 2
NYYNew York Yankees55%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%

at Chase Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260914_auto
ARIHome starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
NYY55%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
ARI45%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model (54.9% NYY) and market (-122, ~54.7%) agree, so the side is consensus: NYY's 5.4 RPG and .692 OPS clearly outclass Arizona's 4.5 RPG and .564 OPS. The 9.02 total projection is 1.5+ above the 7.5 line despite Rodriguez at 2.62 ERA and Cole at 3.67 with a 1.13 WHIP; Chase at 1.036 PF is only mildly boosted. Lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U -104 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betonlineag / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -114NYY / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-184)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total